Gold Price Forecast: Bearish Reversal Pattern Indicates Potential Downward Pressure

Stuck Within Consolidation Channel

Gold has been fluctuating within a rising trend channel since May, following a significant rally of 22.5%. The recent attempt to break out above 2,478 was met with resistance, resulting in a lower swing high. This swing high signifies the end of the BC leg of a falling ABCD pattern, with the first downside target set at 2,347.

It is important to note that this target aligns closely with the lower boundary of the trend channel, indicating that it may act as a support level before the bearish correction is complete. Additionally, the uptrend line drawn from the October swing low converges with the lower boundary, further strengthening the potential support at 2,347. The 127.2% Fibonacci extended target from the ABCD pattern also points to a specific price level of 2,312, adding to the confluence at this region.

Lower Price at Risk of Being Tested as Support

Despite the resilience of gold within the rising trend channel, there is a possibility of a breakdown from the pattern, similar to a rising wedge formation. While the equity markets show signs of retracement, gold has maintained its strength above the 50-Day line. However, with the potential for a bearish weekly reversal in play following a selloff below 2,478, the lower area of the channel remains at risk of being tested as support.

It is worth monitoring the price action closely, as a daily close below 2,478 would confirm the bearish reversal signaled during the recent selloff.

Gold Turns Short-term Bullish Above 2,418

To shift the short-term outlook to bullish, gold would need to surpass today’s high of 2,418, thereby reclaiming its 20-Day line. This move could potentially lead to a retest of the 2,478-swing high, signaling a bullish momentum in the near term.

Keeping an eye on economic events through the economic calendar can provide valuable insights into the market dynamics affecting gold prices.