- Gold price drops from daily highs as better global risk sentiment diminishes safe-haven demand.
- A dip in US Treasury yields places additional pressure on the US Dollar amidst hawkish Fed remarks.
- Easing Middle East tensions sway Gold market, forthcoming US sanctions on Iran could influence future precious metal prices.
Gold prices retreated from close to weekly highs during the North American session on Wednesday amid an improvement in risk appetite. The bullish impulse arrived despite hawkish commentary by US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials. US Treasury bond yields dropped and undermined the Greenback, capping Gold’s plunge.
XAU/USD trades at $2,375, down 0.34%, after hitting a daily high of $2,395, just shy of surpassing $2,400. Tensions in the Middle East had subsided after Israeli officials commented that they considered striking Iran on Monday but decided to wait, according to Axios. In the meantime, the US will impose new sanctions on Iran in the upcoming days, said Jake Sullivan, the White House National Security Advisor.
Back to economic themes, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the US economy has performed quite strongly while acknowledging that recent data shows the lack of further progress on inflation.
Daily digest market movers: Gold slides amid falling US yields, soft US Dollar
- Powell added, “The recent data have clearly not given us greater confidence and instead indicate that it is likely to take longer than expected to achieve that confidence,” that inflation is on the path to 2%. He said, “Given the strength of the labor market and progress on inflation so far, it is appropriate to allow restrictive policy further time to work and let the data and the evolving outlook guide us.”
- Recent US economic data indicates a robust economy, highlighted by February’s Retail Sales, which outperformed expectations, and steady Industrial Production figures. These positive indicators have helped to mitigate concerns raised by weaker-than-anticipated housing data released on Wednesday.
- In the meantime, the CME FedWatch Tool shows the first rate cut could happen in September, with odds for a quarter percentage point cut standing at 71%.
- Despite decent US economic data, market participants seem to be focused on geopolitical risks. Sources cited by The Jerusalem Post revealed that Israel has reportedly finalized plans for a counter strike against Iran.
- US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck’s performance against a basket of six other currencies, loses 0.15% to 105.96.
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimates for Q1 2024 show that the US economy is expected to grow 2.9%, up from 2.8% estimated on April 15, according to the Atlanta GDPNow model.
Technical analysis: Gold dives as RSI nearly exits overbought levels
Gold’s daily chart depicts the yellow metal as upwardly biased despite retreating toward the $2,370 region. The formation of a Doji on Tuesday suggests that buyers lack the momentum to extend the precious metal’s gains, opening the door for a pullback.
In addition, the Relative Strength Index (RSI has fallen below the 80 level and hasn’t looked back, as it is nearly crossing below the 70 level, suggesting that buying pressure is fading.
That said, XAU/USD is headed for a correction. The first support would be the $2,350 mark, followed by the April 15 daily low of $2,324. Once surpassed, Gold might test $2,300.
On the other hand, if buyers drag prices toward $2,400, a test of the all-time high of $2,431 is on the cards.
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon, the terms “risk-on” and “risk off” reflect investors’ willingness to take on risk during a given period. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic and inclined to buy riskier assets. Conversely, in a “risk-off” market, investors play it safe and opt for less risky assets.
During “risk-on” periods, stock markets, most commodities (except Gold), and currencies of commodity-exporting nations tend to rise. In contrast, during “risk-off” periods, bonds, Gold, and safe-haven currencies like the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc, and US Dollar see gains.
Currencies like the Australian Dollar, Canadian Dollar, and New Zealand Dollar, as well as minor FX like the Ruble and South African Rand, typically strengthen during “risk-on” markets due to their reliance on commodity exports for growth.
Major currencies that tend to rise during “risk-off” periods include the US Dollar, Japanese Yen, and Swiss Franc. These currencies are favored for their safe-haven status and capital protection attributes during times of market uncertainty.
Additional Insight:
– The Gold market is heavily influenced by geopolitical tensions, such as those in the Middle East, which can lead to fluctuations in prices.
– Hawkish remarks from the Federal Reserve officials can impact Gold prices due to their effect on the US Dollar and Treasury yields.
– Technical analysis indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) provide valuable insights into potential price movements and market sentiment for Gold traders.
