Happy Friday, traders. Welcome to our weekly market wrap, where we take a look back at these last five trading days with a focus on the market news, economic data and headlines that had the most impact on gold prices and other key correlated assets— and may continue to into the future.
Gold prices have rebounded aggressively after last week’s first decline in nearly a month, rallying to major gains this week and even briefly meeting new all-time highs.
So, what kind of week has it been?
In what feels like a return to historical norms, a week of trading that has been demarcated by a broad risk-off shift in financial markets and particularly turbulent waters in US equity markets has also been a week of strong, even record-breaking performance for gold prices. Over the first two days of trading, a deeper sense of unease settled into markets as investors looked ahead to Wednesday’s FOMC announcements and the July Jobs Report posting Friday. As a rocky week of headlines and quarterly reporting drove instability in the US stock market— especially in a number of dominant tech-focused sectors— gold prices stabilized following a poor showing last week, tentatively stepping back above $2415/oz and then finding steady support to hold that line. There seemed to be two sentiments aiding the yellow metal. On one hand, growing expectations that we have moved just around the corner from the Federal Reserve’s first interest rate hike; on the other, a still-creeping concern that recent economic data may be indicating the central bankers have left it a bit too late to avoid turbulence in the US economy under the more restrictive financial conditions.
The announcement made by the FOMC at the close of their August meeting (with only three remaining this year) was not by any means a surprise: No change to key policy rates, an indication that we are near to that event, but also a reiteration that timing of the next move is “data dependent.” Over Tuesday night and into the early pre-market hours in New York, traders and investors had mostly pre-positioned for this news based on the consensus projections and mood. As a result, with equity markets continuing to stutter, gold prices made their way comfortably to $2425 by lunchtime as markets awaited the Fed. Having already made strong gains, it was a bit surprising to see the yellow metal rocket higher again with the release of the committee’s consensus statement, picking up more than $20/oz within the hour and maintaining a strong hold on that level through the rest of the day.
Given that lack of true surprise from Jerome Powell & Company, there was some consideration as to whether a (relatively) quieter Thursday session would see an unwinding of the Fed Day moves. Before that could play out in US trading— the precious metal held steady through Asian and early European hours— markets were hit with more unsettling macroeconomic data as the ISM Manufacturing Index surveyed an unexpected decline in industrial activity and was preceded by the highest number weekly Initial Jobless Claims in nearly a year. While gold spot marginally softened as some took their profits off the top of Wednesday’s rally, prices remained supported by the thrum of discomfort and uncertainty these Thursday data points amplified in the markets and never looked likely to fall below $2440/oz for long.
This set the stage for Friday’s delivery of the July Jobs Report, a major update to labor market data closely watched by the Fed in assessing their policy decisions that brought an escalation in the trend of unpleasant economic data sets. Here, the numbers levied a double blow: the number of non-farm jobs added to the US economy in July came in below expectations (having consistently outperformed projections every month) at 117K vs. 175K (exp); there was also a surprising increase in the unemployment rate, to 4.3%. Also worth noting is the downward revision to the June NFP number, bringing it well below the 200K mark. The most severe impact of this data in Friday’s markets has been in equities, where all three major indexes have been down nearly -2% or more on the day, with the NASDAQ sliding into correction territory after bearing the brunt of the risk-off turmoil all week.
While the reaction in gold was less intense, Friday’s labor market data did push a steep rally into the chart that took the yellow metal briefly to all-time highs, with the spot ticking at $2470/oz. As the day’s cash markets opened, there was a quick sell-off from the top, but with “recession” having become a constant touchpoint over the final two days of this week, gold has looked very comfortable consolidating around $2430.
Additional Insight:
Looking ahead, the upcoming week may see markets attempting to reset after the tumultuous events of the previous week. While the economic data calendar appears less eventful, analysts expect considerable commentary from Fed officials. Recent trends suggest that the FOMC may work to temper expectations of imminent rate cuts in light of the abrupt deterioration in both economic data and market sentiment. This ongoing uncertainty could prompt efforts to reinforce hopes of a more accommodative stance leading up to September.
As traders prepare for the week ahead, the focus remains on the evolving economic landscape and its implications for gold prices and market sentiment. The balancing act between economic recovery, inflation concerns, and central bank policy decisions continues to shape market dynamics, underscoring the significance of closely monitoring key indicators and geopolitical developments for informed decision-making.
Take some time to relax over the weekend, as the markets gear up for another potentially eventful week ahead. Stay tuned for next week’s market recap to stay informed on the latest trends and developments shaping the financial landscape.
